Cam Newton will be the Top Fantasy Football Quarterback, not Aaron Rodgers, in 2012.
Every media outlet I've seen has Aaron Rodgers listed as the #1 Fantasy QB for the upcoming season.
When I put together my rankings, I saw Cam Newton as the #1 option based on what I think each of them will do this season.
Here's a quick look at the two players:
Aaron Rodgers has been an outstanding QB for the Green Bay Packers since becoming the starter. Aaron Rodgers has a Superbowl ring and has been a top fantasy football performer every year he's started.
I expect Aaron Rodgers to put up big numbers again in 2012 but, I do not think he'll be the #1 Fantasy QB.
Cam Newton came into the league with some high expectations but also some doubt about how his game will translate to the NFL. When I saw his session with Jon Gruden, when he was not able to recite a single play, I thought he was going to be a bust. I'll admit it now, I was wrong. With no offseason program, Cam Newton exploded into the NFL with a huge Rookie season.
With a full offseason and a year of experience under his belt, I expect Cam Newton to take a huge step forward.
Now let's look at the math:
The standard scoring system in fantasy football leagues is:
25 Passing Yards = 1pts
1 Passing TD = 6pts
1 INT = -2pts
10 Rushing Yards = 1pts
1 Rushing TD = 6pts
ESPN's standard league only awards 4prs for a passing TD but I will not get into that now.
Aaron Rodgers 2012 Forecast:
4500 yds Passing
40 TD Passing
200 yds Rushing
2 TD Rushing
Based on these statistics, Aaron Rodgers' fantasy number will be:
Passing yards = 180
TD Passing = 240
INT = -10
Rushing yards = 20
TD Rushing = 12
Total = 442
Cam Newton 2012 Forecast:
4,000 yds Passing
25 TD Passing
800 yds Rushing
15 TD Rushing
Based on these statistics, Cam Newton's fantasy number will be:
Passing yards = 160
TD Passing = 150
INT = -20
Rushing yards = 80
TD Rushing = 90
Total = 460
I know forecasting statistics is arbitrary but, I put together these statistics to represent my overall point.
Putting up huge passing numbers is great, don't forget that rushing yards have a much bigger fantasy impact. Cam Newton's ability to run the ball will separate him this season. With an entire season, and offseason under his belt, the Carolina Panthers will figure out more ways to use Cam Newton in the running and passing game.
We will all see if Cam Newton takes a step forward or stalls out in his Sophomore season, I'm counting on him taking a huge step forward.